Friday, October 31, 2008

10-31-2008 Thu pm

INDU - could be the start of a recovery (W is showing signs of turning but no guarantee; indicators haven't crossed or triggered). this could also be a place to pause or for some to take some profits (D is at recent resistance and at 20ma, though MACD is open upwards). there is a ceiling near 9400 where the 233 BBB, 50ma and purple line are layered. if it breaks through that, there is relatively resistance uncluttered space until 10300. last couple of days have largely been sideways movement and neither the 55 or 34 show any strong tendencies. the BBB on both are rising, they will probably strike the candles and then push them higher.

VIX - W has shown the first candle bringing fear back down inside the BBs. however, it has only come down to the 20ma on the D off which it has been bouncing up repeatedly recently. the MACD on the D and 233 are both indicating continued abatement in fear but the 50ma on the 233 could kick fear back up as well. on both the 233 and 55 the next move for fear is up though the indicators don't show imminent uptick.

Summary - there is some short term room for further improvement. it will be interesting to note the action on both the INDU and VIX as both are near recent ceilings and supports respectively.

COMP -W shows some signs of wanting to turn. the candle that could form a neat tweezer bottom is nearly done. Some potential here for tech stocks. makes sense if we believe the bad news for tech stocks is mostly done being revealed. D showed a DE and still has MACD open upwards but is right against the 20ma. the MACD on the 233 is also open, indicators recently made it past the recently obstinate 20ma and this could get to the 1780-1800 range. it's made the TBB on the 55 and 34, but through significant MAs on both and there may only be slight trace backs.

VXN - W is at the start of an early turn, nothing for granted. D and 233 though both have good indications that fear here is on the retreat. however, again, the D is near the recent fear-support at 20ma and the 233 near the 50ma fear support. So watch carefully. MACD suggest this could go through and show us further reduction in fear. Keep in mind the next possible move on the 55 and 34 for fear is to increase.

Summary - overall, the suggestion is that the tech sector could improve a bit further. there could be some short term good news for tech in the next few days. however, with the economy the way it is, don't assume this is the final turn and that things are going to get rosier for ever.

$BIX - this just paused recently on the D 20ma. Some of the recent uptick has been taken out in what seems like profit taking. however both the 55 nad 34 suggest the next move is up. there's good potential support just below.

$OIX - this right near some recent resistance, and though the MACD on teh D and 233 are open upwards, this has showed a tendency to swing down without too much advance notice on the MACD recently. right now gas prices (2.65) are at a level last seen in Apr 2007. And back then the world economy outlook wasn't so bad. Don't assume things are automatically recoverd. though we could see some nice uptick here given the hammering lately, and the fact that the weather is starting to get colder.

$OSX -